Mott Capital Management

Stocks retreated as the S&P 500 showed signs of a potential double-top pattern, with tightening liquidity and Treasury settlements adding pressure while Tesla and Netflix faced technical weakness.

Gold plunged 5.5% as a gamma squeeze appeared to unwind, while the S&P 500 remained flat and HYG showed signs of renewed weakness near key resistance.

Stocks surged as implied volatility collapsed and the S&P 500 closed above its 20-day moving average, though stretched correlation metrics and upcoming Treasury settlements may test market resilience.

The S&P 500 remains capped below its 20-day moving average following OPEX, with narrowing dispersion, tightening liquidity, and shifting volatility ratios suggesting potential downside risks ahead.

Volatility measures surged far beyond the modest S&P 500 decline, signaling broad-based hedging and rising liquidity stress beneath the market’s surface.

Stocks ended up 40 bps Wednesday as liquidity strains from Treasury settlements pushed repo rates higher and gold volatility spiked to levels not seen since early 2025.

The S&P 500 struggled to hold above key technical levels as narrowing correlation spreads and Powell’s comments on QT signal potential volatility ahead.

The S&P 500’s rally met technical resistance at its 20-day moving average, while falling VIX readings suggest near-term calm that may not last.

The S&P 500’s sharp 2.7% decline on Friday may lead to a short-lived rebound as the VIX 1-day resets, but systematic fund flows and persistent volatility risks suggest further downside pressure remains possible.

Credit spreads widened and liquidity signals tightened as the dollar strengthened and risk assets weakened, hinting that financial conditions may be turning restrictive again.

The S&P 500 remains range-bound near the 6,750 gamma level amid rising volatility, weakening breadth, and a strengthening U.S. dollar breaking above key resistance.

The ghost of 2018 haunts this market, not 1999…

Markets face key inflection points this week as Treasury auctions, dollar strength, and widening credit spreads could shape near-term moves in yields, currencies, and equities.

The S&P 500 remained flat at 6,720 as financing costs and repo usage point to increasing downside risks for the S&P 500.

Volatility dropped to even as liquidity conditions remain tight and select stocks signal potential shifts in market leadership.

Liquidity stress surfaced as repo rates climbed above the Fed’s target, reverse repo volumes declined, and the S&P 500 Dispersion Index reached its highest level since the tariff tantrum.

U.S. equities closed flat as dispersion remained elevated, liquidity tightened, and markets awaited the JOLTS report and major Treasury settlements.

The McClellan Summation Index dropped below 500 for the first time since May, raising concerns about market breadth, volatility floors, and widening European credit spreads.

The dollar strengthened further as rising yields, tightening liquidity, and falling reserves raised risks for equities ahead of key economic data and quarter-end settlements.

The S&P 500 held its 10-day EMA despite broad selling, while the IWM broke trend support, the dollar formed a potential double bottom, and gold reached extreme RSI levels not seen since 1980.

The S&P 500 fell while equal weight indices rose as volatility measures spiked across the board, highlighting ongoing market dispersion driven by the Mag 7.

The S&P 500 advanced while underlying market weakness, liquidity pressures, and rising volatility highlighted fragile conditions beneath the surface.

This week brings a slower pace for markets, with Treasury auctions, and the implications of last week’s central bank moves as volatility in the S&P 500 sinks to multi-year lows.

Volatility remains suppressed as OPEX approaches, with realized volatility at extreme lows, liquidity pressures rising, and long-term bond yields showing signs of steepening.

The Fed cut rates as expected, but rising Treasury yields and shifting expectations for the neutral rate kept markets volatile ahead of key BOJ and inflation developments.

Stocks were flat ahead of the FOMC, but volatility surged across the board, reflecting investor uncertainty going into the Fed’s rate decision.

The market experienced an unusual day where equities, volatility indices, and correlation measures all rose together, signaling divergence and uncertainty ahead of the Fed meeting. At the same time, tightening liquidity conditions, repo market stress, and overbought stock indicators suggest a fragile environment where risks may soon surface.

Markets enter a critical week with Fed and BOJ meetings, a Treasury cash build, and option expirations all pointing toward tighter liquidity and elevated volatility.

The S&P 500 moved in line with volatility expectations after the CPI report, while liquidity strains from the TGA refill pushed repo rates higher and left equity financing activity subdued.

Oracle’s extraordinary 36% surge fueled early market gains, but broader weakness left major indices mixed as investors looked ahead to tomorrow’s CPI report.

Markets await tomorrow’s PPI report while payroll revisions and Oracle’s surprising after-hours surge highlight shifting dynamics in inflation and tech.

Markets Remained Flat Ahead Of Key Inflation Data And Employment Revisions, While Treasury Yields Slipped And Funding Market Liquidity Showed Signs Of Tightening, As Broadcom Reached Overbought Levels.

Markets are preparing for key inflation reports this week while tightening financial conditions, widening credit spreads, and shifting funding rates raise concerns for risk assets despite equities hitting new highs.

The S&P 500 gained and the VIX fell das traders hedged short term ahead of the NFP report, while liquidity measures signaled tightening financial conditions.

US equities closed higher on late-session buying while bond yields fell after a soft JOLTS report, as narrowing US–Japan spreads highlight diverging rate dynamics.

The S&P 500 stalled near its put wall while global bond yields climbed, signaling potential steepening in the yield curve and renewed volatility ahead.

Markets enter a shortened Labor Day week with critical jobs data, Treasury settlements, and liquidity pressures shaping the outlook for Fed policy and asset prices.

Market liquidity pressures are mounting as reserve balances decline and large Treasury settlements approach, leaving equities vulnerable despite lower volatility.

The S&P 500 closed modestly higher as markets awaited Nvidia earnings, while inflation swaps and the yield curve signaled growing concerns about long-term inflation expectations.

Markets stayed quiet ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, while the yield curve steepened, and Treasury–JGB spreads tightening as bond market signals diverge.

The stock market closed mostly lower with the S&P 500 little changed as Nvidia rose, while inflation swaps climbed and global bond yields signaled pressure for US Treasuries.

Markets rallied briefly as volatility collapsed following Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, but fading event risk quickly capped gains across stocks and bonds.

US equities edged lower while inflation data and bond market signals pointed to reduced prospects for a September Fed rate cut and potential steepening of the Treasury curve.

Markets sold off sharply before staging a rebound, but tomorrow’s $44 billion in Treasury settlements and the depletion of the reverse repo facility could pose another challenge. Narrowing US-Japan yield spreads and shifting currency dynamics, particularly in MXNJPY’s alignment with the S&P 500, highlight rising risks of a broader risk-off move.

The NASDAQ 100 dropped nearly 1.4%, with high-growth names like Palantir hit even harder, in what appears to be a liquidity-driven selloff. With the reverse repo facility depleted and Treasury issuance ramping up, funding stress could build, placing additional pressure on equities in the weeks ahead.

Stocks finished flat in a quiet session, with S&P 500 futures posting their lowest trading volume since early July. Market focus now shifts to Jay Powell’s upcoming Jackson Hole speech, inflation swap patterns, yield curve steepening, and a potential breakout in the USDJPY 5-year forward.

Stocks ended lower Friday as volatility looks set to rise with OPEX behind and Jackson Hole on deck. With liquidity pressures mounting and Fed leadership in flux, markets may soon learn whether the recent rally was fueled by genuine strength or by the hidden liquidity boost of the reverse repo facility.

U.S. stocks ended flat, with the S&P 500 showing little momentum despite rising volatility and correlations ahead of tomorrow’s options expiration. Liquidity continues to tighten as reverse repo balances drop, while Japanese bond yields press resistance levels—raising the possibility of shifts in Treasury–JGB spreads that could trigger a yen carry trade unwind.

Market liquidity is poised to tighten further as Treasury settlements and T-bill issuance push the Treasury General Account toward $850 billion, draining reserves and pressuring funding conditions. At the same time, volatility measures are converging, with the VVIX signaling potential increases in the VIX, as the Dow approaches a key technical breakout level distinct from…

The equity market saw a stronger-than-expected volatility crush today, lifting S&P 500 futures early before momentum stalled at the July 31 level—a full retracement of the August 1 decline. Meanwhile short-term realized volatility increased, and the ongoing liquidity drains from Treasury settlements and reverse repo facility continue…